A republic cannot hold democratic elections or claim sovereign legitimacy when the central government is actively dismantling the constitutional pact that binds its regions together.
Today, the Somali Republic faces an existential legal and political crisis. With multiple Federal Member States - including Puntland, Jubaland, and now the South West State - severing operational ties with Villa Somalia, the centre is no longer governing a unified nation. It is governing an illusion.
This fracture is not the result of regional stubbornness; it is the direct consequence of an executive branch that treats the Provisional Constitution not as a sacred anchor, but as an obstacle to be bypassed for political survival.
The Weaponisation of the Constitution
A constitution is meant to protect the state from the ambitions of men. Instead, we are witnessing the weaponisation of our foundational laws.
When the executive branch forces through unilateral mandate extensions, alters federal resource-sharing agreements without regional consensus, and utilises federal security apparatuses to destabilise regional administrations, it is committing institutional vandalism. True statecraft requires building consensus through the bicameral legislature and the National Consultative Council (NCC). Turning these institutions into mere rubber stamps for the presidency destroys the trust required to maintain the federal republic.
You cannot demand loyalty to a centre that refuses to be bound by the rule of law.
The Illusion of a Centralised Democracy
The Federal Government currently projects a narrative to the international community that it is transitioning the country toward “one person, one vote” elections. We must be exceptionally clear: pushing for centralised elections while simultaneously actively destabilising the regional security architectures is a smokescreen for power consolidation.
Democracy is not merely the act of casting a ballot; it requires physical security, institutional independence, and regional consensus. Attempting to force a centralised electoral model onto regions that the federal government is currently blockading or alienating is a recipe for catastrophic national fragmentation. We cannot leap to the ballot box while the foundation of the house is on fire.
The ‘Third Way’ Democratic Roadmap
To pull the Republic back from the brink of political collapse, we must implement a “Third Way” democratic roadmap. The answer to this crisis is not an illegal term extension; it is the complete restoration of our state architecture.
The Independent Constitutional Court: We must immediately establish a fully independent, binding Constitutional Court to arbitrate disputes between the federal government and the Member States. The executive can no longer act as both the player and the referee.
Restoring the Federal Pact: The National Consultative Council (NCC) must return to its original purpose as a genuine consensus-building forum, rather than a mechanism for top-down dictates. No electoral model can be legitimate unless it is unanimously agreed upon by the centre and the regions.
Security-First Elections: We must acknowledge that regional states like the South West and Jubaland are the frontline shields of the nation. The electoral roadmap must be tied to localised security milestones, empowering regional forces to secure their own elections rather than relying on federal proxies or foreign interventions.
The era of ruling Somalia by decree and division has failed. We do not need manufactured constitutional crises; we need an unbreakable legal anchor. It is time to restore the rule of law, rebuild our national consensus, and design a Republic that belongs to all of its people.
If the federal dhow is truly anchored by the weight of Puntland, Jubaland, and South West State, no wave of centralism will have the strength to move it. Loo biqi maayo.